Words to live by

Our traditional notions of scientific method use thorough investigation based on sound established precepts and distinct, definitive proof to light the path toward acquiring knowledge. But in an age of unprecedented transformation, where new technologies reconfigure our modes of communication and affect the very processes of human thought and expression our traditional methods of acquiring knowledge are called into question. What established precepts are sound? What was true of the past is not necessarily true of the future. If the future that lies before us consists of unprecedented change how can we predict the future?

My feeling is that certain gifted thinkers, even if they can't predict the future, can collectively offer us precious words to live by. I wonder....if we considered them together would these words go even further?

How to predict the future.

One way to predict the future, as we have seen a number of times now, is to draw analogies to past eras that display parrallels to our current transformation (prometheus, the advent of literacy, the renaissance). These analogies help us to shed light on the scale and potential of some processes that may be at work in our current transformation but the trends and outcomes of past epochs do not necessarily correspond to those we are following in our new unprecedented era of change.

Another way to light the path toward new knowledge, to uncover our current truth, is to keenly observe new processes that are inexplicable and seemingly at work in our reconfiguration. This isn't easy to do. Our eyes are naturally trained to the figures of our familiar environment. We sometimes sense the effects of new processes which are profoundly reshaping our world without fully appreciating them. These processes are difficult to describe and even more difficult to explain and prove - at least by traditional standards. The thinkers who seem to have the greatest clarity of vision in this confusing time seem to explore first and explain later. They see awkwardness in the way we tend initially to frame or portray new technologies, which is to equate them to something familiar --they refuse to be blinded by dogma and preconceived notions. They focus on irreconcilable evidence of newness and probe it for insight. Rather than embarking on a lengthy systematic process of complex theory building, they tend to speak in basic truths --pithy statements that contradict conventional theory yet are found true in practice, they think in aphorisms, and they explore with heuristics.

• Aphorism

Pronunciation: 'a-f&-"ri-z&m
Function: noun

a concise statement that expresses a principle or truth in a terse, thoughtful manner

• Adage

Pronunciation: 'a-dij
Function: noun

a condensed, sometimes metaphorical, but always memorable saying embodying some important fact of experience that is taken as true by many people

• Pithy

Pronunciation: 'pi-thE
Function: adjective

concise and full of meaning

• Heuristic

Pronunciation: hyu-'ris-tik
Function: noun

commonsense rule that aids in discovery

Marshall Mcluhan was famous for this type of thinking. By coining phrases like 'the medium is the message' and 'the global village' back in the 60's the minds of thousands were tuned into something important, even if unexplainable, about the global communications revolution that was (and is still) just gaining strength. Paradigms shifted and new understanding was able to take root.

Simple principles from computer science have had the same effect. For years, Moore's law and Metcalfe's law, particularly, have been powerful beacons for the power of computers and computer networks.

This site asks for your 'law' and has posted the laws of many great thinkers.

They include:

(Danny) Hillis' Law

representation becomes reality. Or more precisely: Successful representations of reality become more important than the reality they represent.

Examples:
Dollars become more important than gold.
The brand becomes more important than the company.
The painting becomes more important than the landscape.

(Ray) Kurzveil's Law (the notion of accelerating intelligence)

In an evolutionary process, positive feedback increases order exponentially. In other words we are getting smarter and more advanced at a faster and faster rate.

They don't have to be laws per se. Whoever first said that the web is an oral/aural medium was brilliant. It gives power to the individual voice. This is the fundamental message of Cluetrain.

It is useful just to make simple straightforward claims that seem to be key principles of the new networking age. Claims like

• networking facilitates decentralization
  
• digital media is nonrivalrous
  
• our traditional notions of language have expanded to include all new media
  
• the web enhances communication through shared knowledge
  
• if we are continually getting smarter and more advanced, it follows that the generation gap is growing
  
• we are living off nature's capital
  
• and so on.....
  

And there are plenty more of each type.

These probes don't give us the excuse to avoid explanations. Each probe requires a thorough exploration in order to provide whatever evidence there is available to support its insight. However, they do allow us to begin emperically --to begin an attempt to explain things by looking around at the very compelling evidence that is happening right in front of us, and not to tie ourselves down with comparisons to established, elaborate precepts. In some cases those precepts may just not apply to new situations.

To gain insight into the new society that is developing we have to think as much as empericists as ideologues. Even when we don't fully understand why things are happening we have to give credence to the fact that they are happening.

Let's endeavor to list here all kinds of such aphorisms that offer poignant guidance for our journey into the networking age. Maybe we could select the best as a kind of 'ten commandments' for understanding our future. Maybe we could recognize some kind of patterns or order among them.

Please use this space to supply any of your favourite pithy insights --an aphorism, an adage, a law, a rule of thumb. Anything that in a few sentences can give us some words to live by in the awe-inspiring intercreative, interconnected, virtual age we are just beginning to enter. Please provide a brief explanation and pointers to any supporting material.